The United States’ National Weather Service has introduced a forecasting system intended to provide more detailed guidance on severe weather, wildfire smoke and other hazards across North America.
NOAA says its Rapid Refresh Forecast System, implemented November 3, updates hourly and produces forecasts up to 84 hours ahead. That extends the outlook beyond the 48 hours available from its High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model.
The system uses a three-kilometre grid. An accompanying ensemble runs multiple simulations to help forecasters assess the probability of different outcomes. A finer-resolution mode can be deployed for closer examination of threats such as fire weather and winter storms.
Smoke and dust forecasts track airborne particles near the ground and at higher altitudes. NOAA corrected its announcement on November 5 to clarify the forecast lead times.
The upgrade changes the tools available to forecasters; it does not guarantee that every forecast will be accurate.
Graphic: Example precipitation output for the 24 hours ending at noon MDT on October 30, 2026, not a current forecast. Credit: NOAA Global Systems Laboratory.
Source: NOAA announcement.
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